Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Dolphins KC @ MIA

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

3-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Sep 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

0-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Bradley Pinion
KEY GAME

Bradley Pinion

#48 | Punter
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Bradley Pinion None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
73%
📊
DOLPHINS
27%
▲ Edge: +8.70% (MIA)
CHIEFS 86% Book Odds: -599
DOLPHINS 19% Book Odds: +440
Book Implied: 85.70% / 18.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.5
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 45.5 41%
Under 45.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Miami)
ChiefsKC (-10) 0 DolphinsMIA (+10)
Miami Dolphins (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

48.6%

Dolphins Cover

51.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

KC By 1-6 points

16.6%

KC By 7-13 points

15.8%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 27.80
21
MIAMI
Book Implied: 17.80
Simulated Score
26
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 27.80
18
MIAMI
Book Implied: 17.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Chiefs Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +0.5
A
Sim Dolphins (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 42.5
B
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 KC @ MIA 24 - 10
Jan 13, 2024 MIA @ KC 7 - 26
Nov 5, 2023 MIA @ KC 14 - 21
Dec 13, 2020 KC @ MIA 33 - 27
Dec 24, 2017 MIA @ KC 13 - 29
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +36.5% more
Kansas City: 22.7 vs Miami: 14.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.1% more
Kansas City: 151.0 vs Miami: 104.0
Total Yards (L5) +31.0% more
Kansas City: 406.3 vs Miami: 280.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +30.9% more
Kansas City: 255.3 vs Miami: 176.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 21.5 24
MIA Score 21.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.4 / 22.7 19.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 176.3 / 255.3 210.0 / 246.0
Rushing Yards 104.0 / 151.0 119.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 280.3 / 406.3 329.0 / 334.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.7 4.9 / 6.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -441 / +340 → -599 / +440 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
100%MONEY0%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -10 / +10 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 45.5 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
MIA
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
MIA
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -12.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
MIA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
KC
MIA
KC
ML
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
50% 2-2-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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