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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

67-85  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

76-76  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cristian Javier
STARTING PITCHER

Cristian Javier

#53 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV 5-5 3.52 1.10 71.2 49
Cristian Javier 2-5 5.50 1.46 55.2 55
5-5 W-L 2-5
3.52 Ldr ERA 5.50
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.46
71.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 55.2
49 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 55
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
45%
📊
ASTROS
55%
▲ Edge: +3.10% (KC)
ROYALS 42% Book Odds: +141
ASTROS 63% Book Odds: -170
Book Implied: 41.50% / 63%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RoyalsKC (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

64.6%

Astros Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Loss
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Astros Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 KC @ HOU 2 - 6
Sep 16, 2026 KC @ HOU 5 - 2
Sep 15, 2026 KC @ HOU 2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026 HOU @ KC 0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026 HOU @ KC 8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.718 ▲
OPS
.582
170 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +135.0% more
Houston: 2.1 vs Kansas City: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +42.4% more
Houston: 12.9 vs Kansas City: 9.1
Strikeouts (L5) +29.5% more
Houston: 9.4 vs Kansas City: 7.2
Walks (L5) +16.9% more
Houston: 3.7 vs Kansas City: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.5 5
HOU Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.7 / 5.6 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 7.2 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 9.1 13.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.1 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +138 / -167 → +141 / -170
26%TICKETS74%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
30%TICKETS70%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 9 ↑
81%TICKETS19%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
KC
HOU
KC
ML
50% 81-82
55% 89-72
47% 77-87
56% 90-70
ATS
56% 91-72
57% 91-70
55% 90-74
58% 93-67
TTL
45% 70-84-9
58% 90-64-7
45% 69-86-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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