Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Astros KC @ HOU

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

66-85  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Sep 15 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

76-75  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hunter Brown
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Brown

#58 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Wacha 9-8 3.25 1.11 182.2 147
Hunter Brown 5-3 3.52 1.30 92.0 100
9-8 W-L 5-3
3.25 Ldr ERA 3.52
1.11 Ldr WHIP 1.30
182.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 92.0
147 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 100
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
42%
📊
ASTROS
58%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (KC)
ROYALS 42% Book Odds: +139
ASTROS 63% Book Odds: -168
Book Implied: 41.80% / 62.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 61%
Under 8.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

63.7%

Astros Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.5%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
58% Win Prob
B
Sim Astros Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 KC @ HOU 2 - 6
Sep 16, 2026 KC @ HOU 5 - 2
Sep 15, 2026 KC @ HOU 2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026 HOU @ KC 0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026 HOU @ KC 8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.718 ▲
OPS
.582
170 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +102.0% more
Houston: 1.7 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +34.2% more
Houston: 12.9 vs Kansas City: 9.6
Home Runs (Season) +97.6% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +29.6% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.8 2
HOU Score 5.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.5 / 6.4 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.6 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 8.3 14.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 9.6 13.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.7 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +125 / -151 → +139 / -168 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
25%TICKETS75%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
79%TICKETS21%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
KC
HOU
KC
ML
50% 81-82
55% 89-72
47% 77-87
56% 90-70
ATS
56% 91-72
57% 91-70
55% 90-74
58% 93-67
TTL
45% 70-84-9
58% 90-64-7
45% 69-86-9
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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