Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Michigan @ Miami CMU @ MIA

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

2-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 26 • 6:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

4-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Caden VanHuis
KEY GAME

Caden VanHuis

#38 | Place kicker
@
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
Player
Caden VanHuis None-None
Dylan Joyce None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C MICHIGAN
5%
📊
MIAMI
95%
C MICHIGAN --
MIAMI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 (Over)
Over 52.5 58%
Under 52.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+31.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+40.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Central Michigan)
C MichiganCMU (+40.5) 0 MiamiMIA (-40.5)
Central Michigan Chippewas (+40.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Michigan Cover

98.7%

Miami Cover

1.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CMU +31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

CMU By 1-6 points

0.9%

CMU By 7-13 points

0.3%

MIA By 1-6 points

2.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
12.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 6
43.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 46.50
Simulated Score
15
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 6
47
MIAMI
Book Implied: 46.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI C Michigan (+40.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +31.0
A
Sim C Michigan (+40.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +32.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.4
B
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 CMU @ MIA 3 - 52
Sep 21, 2019 CMU @ MIA 12 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +78.6% more
Miami: 532.8 vs Central Michigan: 298.4
First Downs (L5) +72.0% more
Miami: 27.9 vs Central Michigan: 16.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Central Michigan: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +49.7% more
Central Michigan: 1.6 vs Miami: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 12.2 3
MIA Score 43.2 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.9 / 16.2 31.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 207.0 / 210.5 201.0 / 21.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 532.8 / 298.4 572.0 / 158.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +42.5 / -42.5 → +40.5 / -40.5 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 52.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.7
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CMU
MIA
CMU
ML
100% 5-0
100% 6-0
100% 5-0
83% 5-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
33% 2-4
TTL
60% 3-2
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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