Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Patriots PIT @ NE

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

1-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

1-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
@
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
Player
Cameron Johnston None-None
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
35%
📊
PATRIOTS
65%
▲ Edge: +0.10% (PIT)
STEELERS 35% Book Odds: +185
PATRIOTS 69% Book Odds: -225
Book Implied: 35.10% / 69.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.6
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 41.5 61%
Under 41.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (+4.5) 0 PatriotsNE (-4.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

61.2%

Patriots Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

14.7%

PIT By 7-13 points

12.1%

NE By 1-6 points

17.0%

NE By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 18.50
24.8
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 23
Simulated Score
19
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 18.50
24
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 23
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Patriots Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Patriots Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Steelers (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.6
B
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PIT @ NE 3 - 20
Sep 21, 2025 PIT @ NE 21 - 14
Dec 7, 2023 NE @ PIT 21 - 18
Sep 18, 2022 NE @ PIT 17 - 14
Sep 8, 2019 PIT @ NE 3 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +122.0% more
New England: 2.2 vs Pittsburgh: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.2% more
New England: 117.7 vs Pittsburgh: 89.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 20.8 3
NE Score 24.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 16.7 15.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 185.0 / 195.4 191.0 / 144.0
Rushing Yards 117.7 / 89.1 136.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 302.7 / 284.4 327.0 / 235.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 4.4 6.2 / 3.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -218 → +185 / -225 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +4.5 / -4.5
57%TICKETS43%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 41.5 ↓
37%TICKETS63%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
NE
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
NE
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
NE
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
PIT
NE
PIT
ML
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
50% 4-4
ATS
29% 2-5-1
38% 3-5
29% 2-5-1
25% 2-6
TTL
12% 1-7
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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