Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Patriots PIT @ NE

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

1-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

1-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
@
Mitch Wishnowsky
KEY GAME

Mitch Wishnowsky

#19 | Punter
Player
Cameron Johnston None-None
Mitch Wishnowsky None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
35%
📊
PATRIOTS
65%
▲ Edge: +0.10% (PIT)
STEELERS 35% Book Odds: +185
PATRIOTS 69% Book Odds: -225
Book Implied: 35.10% / 69.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.6
Projected
Book Total
41.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 41.5 61%
Under 41.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (+4.5) 0 PatriotsNE (-4.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

61.2%

Patriots Cover

38.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PIT +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

14.7%

PIT By 7-13 points

12.1%

NE By 1-6 points

17.0%

NE By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 18.50
24.8
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 23
Simulated Score
19
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 18.50
24
NEW ENGLAND
Book Implied: 23
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Patriots Win
68% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Steelers (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Steelers (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.6
A
Sim o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PIT @ NE 3 - 20
Sep 21, 2025 PIT @ NE 21 - 14
Dec 7, 2023 NE @ PIT 21 - 18
Sep 18, 2022 NE @ PIT 17 - 14
Sep 8, 2019 PIT @ NE 3 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +90.0% more
New England: 1.8 vs Pittsburgh: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +57.0% more
New England: 132.1 vs Pittsburgh: 84.1
First Downs (L5) +19.7% more
New England: 18.9 vs Pittsburgh: 15.8
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
New England: 324.0 vs Pittsburgh: 272.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 20.8 3
NE Score 24.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 15.8 15.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 192.0 / 188.2 191.0 / 144.0
Rushing Yards 132.1 / 84.1 136.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 324.0 / 272.3 327.0 / 235.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 4.6 6.2 / 3.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -218 → +185 / -225 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +4.5 / -4.5
57%TICKETS43%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43.5 → 41.5 ↓
37%TICKETS63%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -6.0
NE
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -6.0
NE Advantage
1-0-1 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
0-2-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -13.0
NE
0-2-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -20.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
PIT
NE
PIT
ML
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
ATS
0% 0-1-1
50% 1-1
0% 0-1-1
0% 0-2
TTL
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rams' Puka Nacua Doubtful for Week 3 Clash with Broncos Due to G…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Indiana Survives Northwestern Scare: Backup RB Lee Beebe Jr. Shi…
usatoday 0 minutes ago
Antwan Raymond's 3 TDs Power Rutgers' 58-7 Rout; Greg Schiano No…
abcnews 0 minutes ago
Sean Payton Lauds Riley Moss's Grit as Broncos Prepare for Rams …
yardbarker 0 minutes ago
Joe Burrow Endorses Lane Kiffin as Perfect Fit for LSU
sportingnews 2 hours, 27 minutes ago