NICHOLLS
NICHOLLSNICH
2-2 | Road
0
SAM HOUSTON
SAM HOUSTONSHSU
1-2 | Home
59
Key Game
KEY GAME
Pharrell Harewood
#16 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Cal Joseph
#31 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Pharrell Harewood | None-None |
| Cal Joseph | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NICHOLLS
15%
SAM HOUSTON
85%
NICHOLLS
--
SAM HOUSTON
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 50.5
59%
Under 50.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+18.5
NICHOLLS
Book Spread
+21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Nicholls)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NICH +18.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NICH)
NICH By 1-6 points
5.0%
NICH By 7-13 points
2.6%
SHSU By 1-6 points
9.6%
SHSU By 7-13 points
16.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Nicholls
18
NICHOLLS
Book Implied: 14.80
Sam Houston
36.5
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 35.80
Simulated Score
Nicholls
17
NICHOLLS
Book Implied: 14.80
Sam Houston
25
SAM HOUSTON
Book Implied: 35.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Sam Houston
Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim
Sam Houston
Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nicholls (+21)
Loss
Proj Spread: +18.5
C
Sim
Nicholls (+21)
Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o50.5
Win
Proj Total: 54.5
B
Sim
u50.5
Loss
Proj Total: 42.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 19, 2026
NICH @ SHSU
0 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5)
+71.0% more
Sam Houston: 358.4
vs
Nicholls: 209.6
First Downs (L5)
+39.3% more
Sam Houston: 19.3
vs
Nicholls: 13.8
Turnovers (L5)
+18.6% more
Sam Houston: 1.4
vs
Nicholls: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NICH Score
18.0
0
SHSU Score
36.5
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.3 / 13.8
26.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards
91.8 / 98.2
233.0 / 124.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.3
0.59 / 0.07
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards
358.4 / 209.6
619.0 / 163.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +860 / -1587
→
-- / --
Spread (ATS)
Open: +17.5 / -17.5
→
+21 / -21
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5
→
50.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
--
SHSU
Advantage
1-7-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -7.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
--
SHSU
Advantage
3-5-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -7.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
--
SHSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
NICH
SHSU
NICH
ML
88%
7-1
100%
2-0
75%
6-2
100%
2-0
ATS
62%
5-3
50%
1-1
25%
2-6
50%
1-1
TTL
88%
7-1
50%
1-1
75%
6-2
0%
0-2
