Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Jax State @ Ohio JXST @ OHIO

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

1-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 6:00 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

1-1  |  Home

29
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
Magnus Haines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
22%
📊
OHIO
78%
▲ Edge: +24.40% (OHIO)
JAX STATE 49% Book Odds: +104
OHIO 54% Book Odds: -117
Book Implied: 49% / 53.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.5
Projected
Book Total
50.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 50.0 49%
Under 50.0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.5
OHIO
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Ohio)
Jax StateJXST (+2.5) 0 OhioOHIO (-2.5)
Ohio Bobcats (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

16.7%

Ohio Cover

83.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO -13.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

JXST By 1-6 points

8.2%

JXST By 7-13 points

5.0%

OHIO By 1-6 points

13.2%

OHIO By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
18
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
31.5
OHIO
Book Implied: 26.20
Simulated Score
27
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
36
OHIO
Book Implied: 26.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio Win
78% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio Win
81% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.5
B
Sim Ohio (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.0 Loss
Proj Total: 49.5
D
Sim o50.0 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 JXST @ OHIO 27 - 29
Dec 20, 2024 OHIO @ JXST 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +80.2% more
Ohio: 1.8 vs Jacksonville State: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Ohio: 221.1 vs Jacksonville State: 189.8
Total Yards (L5) +12.3% more
Jacksonville State: 418.6 vs Ohio: 366.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Jacksonville State: 0.5 vs Ohio: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 18.0 27
OHIO Score 31.5 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 21.4 17.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 221.1 / 189.8 165.0 / 161.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 366.9 / 418.6 262.0 / 447.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +106 / -124 → +104 / -117 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2 / -2 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
OHIO
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
OHIO Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +1.1
OHIO
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
JXST
OHIO
JXST
ML
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
100% 6-0
100% 7-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2-1
33% 2-4
50% 3-3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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