HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
75-73 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
88-59 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Miguel Ullola
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Ullola | 0-0 | 3.86 | 0.86 | 7.0 | 10 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 14-5 | 2.88 | 0.91 | 153.1 | 156 |
0-0
W-L
14-5
3.86
ERA
Ldr 2.88
0.86 Ldr
WHIP
0.91
7.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 153.1
10
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 156
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
49%
RAYS
51%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (HOU)
ASTROS
38%
Book Odds: +162
RAYS
66%
Book Odds: -198
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
66%
Under 7.5
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.5%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3
Tampa Bay
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
HOU @ TB
4 - 14
Sep 12, 2026
HOU @ TB
2 - 3
Sep 11, 2026
HOU @ TB
1 - 3
Jul 5, 2026
TB @ HOU
0 - 2
Jul 4, 2026
TB @ HOU
8 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.582
OPS
▲
.728
4
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4125.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+51.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+14.6%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+9.7%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.8
1
TB Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 9.2
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 10.3
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 16.0
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.7
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +141 / -171
→
+162 / -198
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
HOU
TB
HOU
ML
58%
95-68
50%
81-82
58%
95-68
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
91-72
55%
90-73
55%
90-74
TTL
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-10
45%
69-86-9
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