HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
75-72 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
82-65 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cristian Javier
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 2-5 | 5.98 | 1.55 | 49.2 | 50 |
| Zack Wheeler | 12-5 | 3.23 | 1.08 | 136.1 | 163 |
2-5
W-L
12-5
5.98
ERA
Ldr 3.23
1.55
WHIP
Ldr 1.08
49.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 136.1
50
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 163
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
33%
PHILLIES
67%
▲ Edge: +2% (PHI)
ASTROS
39%
Book Odds: +154
PHILLIES
65%
Book Odds: -187
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5
60%
Under 8.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Philadelphia
5.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Phillies
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
HOU @ PHI
2 - 1
Sep 9, 2026
HOU @ PHI
7 - 11
Sep 8, 2026
HOU @ PHI
6 - 5
Jun 26, 2025
PHI @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 25, 2025
PHI @ HOU
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.50
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.286
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.582
OPS
▲
.724
4
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.7% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+14.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+8.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Houston: 35.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+7.8%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Houston: 16.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.0
2
PHI Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 9.7
3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 11.0
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 17.5
4.0 / 13.0
Walks
0.8 / 3.6
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163
→
+154 / -187
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
HOU
PHI
HOU
ML
59%
97-67
50%
81-82
49%
80-84
47%
77-87
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-72
51%
83-81
55%
90-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-76-9
45%
69-86-9
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