Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Marlins NYM @ MIA

NEW YORK

METSNYM

66-78  |  Road

9
FINAL
Mon, Sep 7 • 1:10 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

72-73  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jonah Tong
STARTING PITCHER

Jonah Tong

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Eury Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Eury Perez

#39 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jonah Tong 1-1 3.60 1.50 10.0 7
Eury Perez 7-10 3.72 1.18 135.1 145
1-1 W-L 7-10
3.60 Ldr ERA 3.72
1.50 WHIP Ldr 1.18
10.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 135.1
7 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 145
AI Model Win Probability
METS
42%
📊
MARLINS
58%
METS 46% Book Odds: +117
MARLINS 59% Book Odds: -141
Book Implied: 46.10% / 58.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 61%
Under 8.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
MetsNYM (+1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (-1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

63.7%

Marlins Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.5%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
5.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NYM @ MIA 15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026 NYM @ MIA 7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 NYM @ MIA 9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026 MIA @ NYM 2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 MIA @ NYM 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.705
OPS
▲ .727
204 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +104.5% more
Miami: 5.0 vs New York: 2.4
Hits (L5) +8.8% more
Miami: 8.1 vs New York: 7.4
Runs per Game (Season) +2.3% more
Miami: 4.4 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +2.2%
Miami: 72.7% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.8 9
MIA Score 5.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.4 6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 9.8 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 14.4 11.0 / 20.0
Walks 5.0 / 2.4 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126 → +117 / -141 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
27%TICKETS73%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYM
MIA
NYM
ML
48% 78-84
50% 79-80
55% 88-72
48% 76-83
ATS
56% 91-71
58% 93-66
54% 86-74
49% 78-81
TTL
56% 88-69-5
55% 80-66-13
53% 82-73-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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