Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Chiefs DEN @ KC

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

0-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Mon, Sep 14 • 8:15 PM ET
Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

1-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
46%
📊
CHIEFS
54%
BRONCOS 48% Book Odds: +110
CHIEFS 57% Book Odds: -130
Book Implied: 47.60% / 56.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 54%
Under 42.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Kansas City)
BroncosDEN (+2.5) 0 ChiefsKC (-2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

38.8%

Chiefs Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

DEN By 1-6 points

14.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

12.1%

KC By 1-6 points

17.0%

KC By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20
DENVER
Book Implied: 20
24
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
Book Implied: 20
23
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs Win
54% Win Prob
A
Sim Chiefs Win
61% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chiefs (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Sim Chiefs (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2026 DEN @ KC 10 - 31
Dec 25, 2025 DEN @ KC 20 - 13
Nov 16, 2025 KC @ DEN 19 - 22
Jan 5, 2025 KC @ DEN 0 - 38
Nov 10, 2024 DEN @ KC 14 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +64.0% more
Kansas City: 1.5 vs Denver: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Kansas City: 115.7 vs Denver: 103.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +23.7% more
Denver: 275.4 vs Kansas City: 210.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.4% more
Denver: 5.8 vs Kansas City: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 20.0 10
KC Score 24.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 20.8 19.0 / 9.0
Net Passing Yards 210.2 / 275.4 172.0 / 115.0
Rushing Yards 115.7 / 103.5 220.0 / 61.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 325.9 / 378.9 392.0 / 176.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.8 5.9 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -146 → +110 / -130 ↓
37%TICKETS63%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: 43 → 42.5 ↓
24%TICKETS76%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -4.3
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DEN
KC
DEN
ML
100% 4-0
50% 3-3
100% 4-0
67% 4-2
ATS
50% 2-2
83% 5-1
25% 1-3
50% 3-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 3-3
50% 2-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Chiefs' Sideline Firestorm: How Eric Bieniemy's Return Ignited K…
kansascity 0 minutes ago
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rips Bo Nix's Performance: 'That Right There Is…
nbcsports 5 hours, 49 minutes ago
Ryan Fitzpatrick Rips Bo Nix's 'Disrespectful' Play After Bronco…
awfulannouncing 5 hours, 50 minutes ago
Sam Darnold's Two Interceptions Prove Costly in Seahawks' Overti…
usatoday 5 hours, 57 minutes ago
Seahawks' 3-3 Start Raises Question: How Do Super Bowl Champs Fa…
yahoo 5 hours, 58 minutes ago