SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
59-84 | Road
9
NEW YORK
METSNYM
64-78 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Molina
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Thornton
#49 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Molina | 2-0 | 3.77 | 1.05 | 14.1 | 9 |
| Zac Thornton | 3-4 | 2.93 | 1.16 | 61.1 | 45 |
2-0
W-L
3-4
3.77
ERA
Ldr 2.93
1.05 Ldr
WHIP
1.16
14.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 61.1
9
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 45
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
51%
METS
49%
▲ Edge: +10.80% (SF)
GIANTS
41%
Book Odds: +147
METS
62%
Book Odds: -160
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.2%
NYM By 1-2 runs
15.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
SF @ NYM
2 - 4
Sep 5, 2026
SF @ NYM
9 - 5
Sep 4, 2026
SF @ NYM
6 - 10
Apr 5, 2026
NYM @ SF
5 - 2
Apr 4, 2026
NYM @ SF
9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
New York
NYM
144
▲
Games Played
143
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
4.17
.248
▲
Avg (AVG)
.236
.308
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.407
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.391
.716
▲
OPS
.696
164
Home Runs
▲
176
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8
vs
New York: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+27.6% more
San Francisco: 4.7
vs
New York: 3.4
OPS (Season)
+2.0%
San Francisco: 71.6%
vs
New York: 69.6%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.6%
San Francisco: 40.7%
vs
New York: 39.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.2
9
NYM Score
3.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.6
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 0.9
1.0 / 6.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.0
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
17.4 / 13.5
9.0 / 29.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.7
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +157 / -191
→
+147 / -160
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
59-85-0
(41.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
65-78-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.4%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
67-65-12
O: 50.8% / U: 49.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
64-67-12
O: 48.9% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SF
NYM
SF
ML
51%
71-69
48%
68-74
49%
69-71
56%
80-62
ATS
57%
80-60
61%
87-55
49%
68-72
55%
78-64
TTL
52%
66-61-13
54%
72-61-9
88%
119-17-4
86%
120-20-2
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