NEW YORK
METSNYM
62-77 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
83-55 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Freddy Peralta
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | 4-6 | 4.55 | 1.32 | 122.2 | 120 |
| Freddy Peralta | 6-11 | 5.11 | 1.41 | 141.0 | 133 |
4-6
W-L
6-11
4.55 Ldr
ERA
5.11
1.32 Ldr
WHIP
1.41
122.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 141.0
120
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 133
AI Model Win Probability
METS
65%
RAYS
35%
▲ Edge: +17.80% (NYM)
METS
47%
Book Odds: +113
RAYS
58%
Book Odds: -136
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
17.7%
TB By 1-2 runs
14.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rays
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
NYM @ TB
10 - 4
Sep 1, 2026
NYM @ TB
2 - 6
Aug 31, 2026
NYM @ TB
3 - 2
Jun 15, 2025
TB @ NYM
9 - 0
Jun 14, 2025
TB @ NYM
8 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
140
Games Played
140
4.12
Runs / Game
▲
4.49
.236
Avg (AVG)
▲
.260
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.328
.389
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.694
OPS
▲
.730
168
▲
Home Runs
144
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.7% more
New York: 10.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.6
Home Runs (Season)
+14.3% more
New York: 168.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 144.0
Walks (L5)
+92.5% more
Tampa Bay: 2.6
vs
New York: 1.3
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.4
2
TB Score
3.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.0
13.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 10.0
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 13.0
21.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.6 / 1.3
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175
→
+113 / -136
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
64-77-0
(45.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
84-57-0
(59.6%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.1%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
63-66-12
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
65-71-5
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYM
TB
NYM
ML
57%
80-60
51%
70-68
61%
85-55
49%
68-70
ATS
63%
88-52
57%
79-59
63%
88-52
49%
68-70
TTL
48%
63-69-8
52%
65-60-13
85%
117-21-2
88%
118-16-4
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