Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Rays NYM @ TB

NEW YORK

METSNYM

62-76  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

82-55  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Robert Stock
STARTING PITCHER

Robert Stock

#89 | RP
@
Ian Seymour
STARTING PITCHER

Ian Seymour

#61 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Robert Stock 0-3 7.40 1.94 20.2 21
Ian Seymour 9-5 4.21 1.15 107.0 128
0-3 W-L 9-5
7.40 ERA Ldr 4.21
1.94 WHIP Ldr 1.15
20.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 107.0
21 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 128
AI Model Win Probability
METS
52%
📊
RAYS
48%
▲ Edge: +15.60% (NYM)
METS 37% Book Odds: +173
RAYS 65% Book Odds: -187
Book Implied: 36.60% / 65.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 (Over)
Over 7.5 71%
Under 7.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (New York)
MetsNYM (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

51.0%

Rays Cover

49.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.9%

TB By 1-2 runs

18.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
4.9
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 NYM @ TB 10 - 4
Sep 1, 2026 NYM @ TB 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2026 NYM @ TB 3 - 2
Jun 15, 2025 TB @ NYM 9 - 0
Jun 14, 2025 TB @ NYM 8 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Tampa Bay TB
141
Games Played
141
4.16
Runs / Game
▲ 4.50
.236
Avg (AVG)
▲ .260
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .328
.391
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.697
OPS
▲ .731
173 ▲
Home Runs
146
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +15.6% more
New York: 173.0 vs Tampa Bay: 146.0
Home Runs (L5) +60.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.5 vs New York: 0.9
Walks (L5) +43.3% more
Tampa Bay: 2.9 vs New York: 2.0
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.9 vs New York: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.0 3
TB Score 4.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.0 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 9.0 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 11.9 9.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175 → +173 / -187 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
9%TICKETS91%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
64-77-0 (45.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
84-57-0 (59.6%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.1%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
63-66-12
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
TB
65-71-5
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYM
TB
NYM
ML
57% 80-60
51% 70-68
61% 85-55
49% 68-70
ATS
63% 88-52
57% 79-59
63% 88-52
49% 68-70
TTL
48% 63-69-8
52% 65-60-13
85% 117-21-2
88% 118-16-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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