Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Mets HOU @ NYM

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

69-68  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Aug 30 • 3:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

61-76  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ethan Pecko

#70 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Thornton

#49 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ethan Pecko 0-0 7.88 1.88 8.0 5
Zac Thornton 3-4 2.88 1.15 56.1 40
0-0 W-L 3-4
7.88 ERA Ldr 2.88
1.88 WHIP Ldr 1.15
8.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 56.1
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 40
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
22%
📊
METS
78%
▲ Edge: +23.50% (NYM)
ASTROS 47% Book Odds: +111
METS 54% Book Odds: -119
Book Implied: 47.40% / 54.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 9.0 64%
Under 9.0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (New York)
AstrosHOU (+1.5) 0 MetsNYM (-1.5)
New York Mets (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

19.8%

Mets Cover

80.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

HOU By 1-2 runs

9.5%

HOU By 3-4 runs

4.6%

NYM By 1-2 runs

17.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
6.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Mets Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.4
B
Sim Astros (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o9.0 Push
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 HOU @ NYM 6 - 3
Aug 29, 2026 HOU @ NYM 2 - 6
Aug 28, 2026 HOU @ NYM 3 - 1
Mar 29, 2025 NYM @ HOU 1 - 2
Mar 28, 2025 NYM @ HOU 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.582
OPS
▲ .705
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +43.7% more
New York: 4.3 vs Houston: 3.0
Hits (L5) +37.9% more
New York: 8.0 vs Houston: 5.8
Errors (L5) +34.0% more
New York: 0.5 vs Houston: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.4 6
NYM Score 6.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 5.8 5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 8.1 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 10.6 13.0 / 18.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.0 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +115 / -139 → +111 / -119 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
39%TICKETS61%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 9 ↑
59%TICKETS41%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
HOU
NYM
HOU
ML
50% 79-80
50% 81-82
48% 76-83
47% 77-87
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 91-72
49% 78-81
55% 90-74
TTL
55% 80-66-13
45% 70-84-9
51% 74-72-13
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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