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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

51-77  |  Road

18
FINAL
Thu, Aug 20 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

64-64  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Grayson Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Grayson Rodriguez

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Peter Lambert
STARTING PITCHER

Peter Lambert

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grayson Rodriguez 3-5 7.17 1.59 59.0 55
Peter Lambert 8-6 3.11 1.15 118.2 117
3-5 W-L 8-6
7.17 ERA Ldr 3.11
1.59 WHIP Ldr 1.15
59.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 118.2
55 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 117
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
25%
📊
ASTROS
75%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (HOU)
ANGELS 38% Book Odds: +167
ASTROS 64% Book Odds: -180
Book Implied: 37.50% / 64.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 8.0 64%
Under 8.0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Houston)
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Houston Astros (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

23.4%

Astros Cover

76.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

LAA By 1-2 runs

10.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

5.6%

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
6.1
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Astros Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Astros Loss
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
C
Sim Astros (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.369 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.679 ▲
OPS
.582
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +92.0% more
Houston: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Walks (L5) +36.5% more
Houston: 3.0 vs Los Angeles: 2.2
Total Bases (L5) +29.2% more
Houston: 10.4 vs Los Angeles: 8.1
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Houston: 0.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.2 18
HOU Score 6.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.7 / 6.1 8.0 / 18.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 10.4 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 8.1 11.0 / 29.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.2 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +158 / -193 → +167 / -180 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
14%TICKETS86%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 8 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAA
HOU
LAA
ML
50% 81-82
59% 96-66
47% 77-87
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 91-72
60% 97-65
55% 90-74
51% 82-80
TTL
45% 70-84-9
53% 83-74-5
45% 69-86-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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