LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
50-77 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
64-63 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walbert Urena
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Pecko
#70 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walbert Urena | 8-8 | 2.67 | 1.25 | 107.2 | 102 |
| Ethan Pecko | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
8-8
W-L
0-0
2.67
ERA
Ldr 0.00
1.25
WHIP
Ldr 0.00
107.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
102 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
37%
ASTROS
63%
▲ Edge: +4.70% (HOU)
ANGELS
43%
Book Odds: +132
ASTROS
59%
Book Odds: -142
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.7 (Under)
Over 8.5
37%
Under 8.5
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
LAA By 1-2 runs
15.3%
LAA By 3-4 runs
9.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
2.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
Houston
4.1
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Astros
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Astros
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
LAA @ HOU
18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026
LAA @ HOU
2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026
LAA @ HOU
3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026
HOU @ LAA
7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026
HOU @ LAA
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.04
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.369
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.679
▲
OPS
.582
154
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+89.0% more
Houston: 1.4
vs
Los Angeles: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+22.4% more
Houston: 11.1
vs
Los Angeles: 9.1
Home Runs (Season)
+97.4% more
Los Angeles: 154.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
2.7
2
HOU Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 6.6
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 9.7
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 9.1
9.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +137 / -165
→
+132 / -142
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAA
HOU
LAA
ML
50%
81-82
59%
96-66
47%
77-87
55%
89-73
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
97-65
55%
90-74
51%
82-80
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
83-74-5
45%
69-86-9
52%
82-75-5
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