Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Mets SD @ NYM

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

68-59  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Aug 18 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

57-70  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Robbie Ray
STARTING PITCHER

Robbie Ray

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Zac Thornton

#49 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Robbie Ray 10-7 3.28 1.33 131.2 113
Zac Thornton 3-3 2.78 1.10 45.1 29
10-7 W-L 3-3
3.28 ERA Ldr 2.78
1.33 WHIP Ldr 1.10
131.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 45.1
113 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 29
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
51%
📊
METS
49%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (NYM)
PADRES 54% Book Odds: -116
METS 48% Book Odds: +108
Book Implied: 53.70% / 48.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 8.5 59%
Under 8.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (New York)
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 MetsNYM (+1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

49.0%

Mets Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

SD By 1-2 runs

18.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

13.9%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
4.6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
C
Sim Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 SD @ NYM 2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 SD @ NYM 5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026 SD @ NYM 1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026 NYM @ SD 7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026 NYM @ SD 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.925 ▲
OPS
.705
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +37.2% more
San Diego: 1.5 vs New York: 0.9
Walks (L5) +29.1% more
San Diego: 3.5 vs New York: 2.5
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
San Diego: 0.6 vs New York: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +28.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.7 5
NYM Score 4.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.8 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.5 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 6.4 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 12.7 14.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.5 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +270 / -350 → -116 / +108 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
43%TICKETS57%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SD
NYM
SD
ML
50% 79-80
51% 85-83
48% 76-83
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 93-66
54% 91-77
49% 78-81
55% 92-75
TTL
55% 80-66-13
51% 82-80-6
51% 74-72-13
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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