MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
77-48 | Road
6
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
74-51 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Henderson
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tarik Skubal
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Henderson | 6-2 | 2.88 | 0.91 | 56.1 | 69 |
| Tarik Skubal | 7-6 | 2.93 | 0.93 | 107.2 | 128 |
6-2
W-L
7-6
2.88 Ldr
ERA
2.93
0.91 Ldr
WHIP
0.93
56.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 107.2
69
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 128
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
52%
DODGERS
48%
▲ Edge: +12.50% (MIL)
BREWERS
39%
Book Odds: +155
DODGERS
64%
Book Odds: -180
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 7.5
62%
Under 7.5
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
LAD By 1-2 runs
18.1%
LAD By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
Los Angeles
4.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dodgers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
MIL @ LAD
6 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
MIL @ LAD
4 - 1
Aug 14, 2026
MIL @ LAD
1 - 3
Aug 13, 2026
MIL @ LAD
5 - 4
May 24, 2026
LAD @ MIL
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.743
OPS
▲
.762
154
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+44.5% more
Milwaukee: 4.3
vs
Los Angeles: 2.4
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8
vs
Los Angeles: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.9% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Los Angeles: 4.9
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Los Angeles: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.5
6
LAD Score
4.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 6.2
6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.5
7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 9.8
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.4 / 4.3
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -168
→
+155 / -180
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
LAD
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
MIL
LAD
MIL
ML
56%
92-73
62%
101-61
48%
79-87
52%
84-78
ATS
59%
98-67
58%
94-68
43%
72-94
48%
78-84
TTL
48%
77-82-6
40%
62-92-8
44%
70-90-6
50%
77-77-8
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