NEW YORK
METSNYM
53-68 | Road
0
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
72-48 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | 8-7 | 3.51 | 1.16 | 130.2 | 156 |
| Martin Perez | 7-6 | 3.14 | 1.15 | 100.1 | 78 |
8-7
W-L
7-6
3.51
ERA
Ldr 3.14
1.16
WHIP
Ldr 1.15
130.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
100.1
156 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
78
AI Model Win Probability
METS
56%
BRAVES
44%
▲ Edge: +9.90% (NYM)
METS
46%
Book Odds: +116
BRAVES
56%
Book Odds: -126
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.0%
ATL By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
A
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
NYM @ ATL
3 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
NYM @ ATL
0 - 4
Aug 10, 2026
NYM @ ATL
8 - 5
Jul 29, 2026
ATL @ NYM
1 - 0
Jul 27, 2026
ATL @ NYM
3 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.705
OPS
▲
.757
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+56.2% more
New York: 5.8
vs
Atlanta: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+43.7% more
New York: 1.7
vs
Atlanta: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+28.4% more
New York: 18.3
vs
Atlanta: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.5
0
ATL Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 10.9
3.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 10.0
4.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 18.3
9.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.5 / 5.8
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
+116 / -126
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
NYM
ATL
NYM
ML
46%
77-90
50%
79-80
54%
90-78
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-66
52%
87-81
49%
78-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
55%
80-66-13
49%
76-80-11
51%
74-72-13
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