HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
60-57 | Road
6
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
60-57 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ronel Blanco
#56 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robbie Ray
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronel Blanco | 0-1 | 7.36 | 1.30 | 14.2 | 16 |
| Robbie Ray | 10-6 | 3.08 | 1.29 | 122.2 | 107 |
0-1
W-L
10-6
7.36
ERA
Ldr 3.08
1.30
WHIP
Ldr 1.29
14.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 122.2
16
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 107
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
19%
PADRES
81%
▲ Edge: +29.60% (SD)
ASTROS
51%
Book Odds: -102
PADRES
52%
Book Odds: -107
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.5
68%
Under 8.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
HOU By 1-2 runs
8.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
3.7%
SD By 1-2 runs
16.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
San Diego
7.1
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Sim
Padres
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.9
A
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
HOU @ SD
2 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
HOU @ SD
2 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
HOU @ SD
6 - 3
Apr 20, 2025
SD @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 19, 2025
SD @ HOU
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
San Diego
SD
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.582
OPS
▲
.925
4
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+100.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+34.3%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+20.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Houston: 35.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+15.9%
San Diego: 32.8%
vs
Houston: 16.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.2
6
SD Score
7.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.5 / 10.5
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 7.8
3.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 15.3
12.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.3
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -122
→
-102 / -107
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
HOU
SD
HOU
ML
51%
85-83
50%
81-82
51%
85-82
47%
77-87
ATS
54%
91-77
56%
91-72
55%
92-75
55%
90-74
TTL
51%
82-80-6
45%
70-84-9
54%
86-74-6
45%
69-86-9
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