NEW YORK
METSNYM
50-66 | Road
13
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
57-59 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Foster Griffin
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | 7-7 | 3.29 | 1.12 | 125.2 | 148 |
| Foster Griffin | 12-3 | 3.06 | 1.07 | 129.1 | 116 |
7-7
W-L
12-3
3.29
ERA
Ldr 3.06
1.12
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
125.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 129.1
148 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
116
AI Model Win Probability
METS
64%
GUARDIANS
36%
▲ Edge: +17.70% (NYM)
METS
47%
Book Odds: +114
GUARDIANS
55%
Book Odds: -124
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 7.0
57%
Under 7.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
17.7%
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.80
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Guardians
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
C
Sim
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
NYM @ CLE
13 - 6
Aug 5, 2026
NYM @ CLE
6 - 5
Aug 4, 2026
NYM @ CLE
6 - 2
Aug 6, 2025
CLE @ NYM
4 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
CLE @ NYM
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.705
▲
OPS
.696
204
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+78.6% more
New York: 2.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+27.0% more
New York: 16.0
vs
Cleveland: 11.7
Home Runs (Season)
+20.6% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.2% more
New York: 11.1
vs
Cleveland: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.6
13
CLE Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 7.5
10.0 / 18.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 2.0
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 11.1
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 16.0
13.0 / 32.0
Walks
5.1 / 2.6
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -114
→
+114 / -124
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NYM
CLE
NYM
ML
54%
87-75
50%
79-80
49%
80-83
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
93-69
58%
93-66
58%
95-68
49%
78-81
TTL
56%
89-71-2
55%
80-66-13
44%
70-90-2
51%
74-72-13
Contextual Game News
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