DETROIT
TIGERSDET
55-58 | Road
8
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
55-59 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emerson Hancock
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Melton | 6-1 | 1.58 | 0.93 | 7.0 | 4 |
| Emerson Hancock | 6-5 | 3.33 | 1.04 | 6.0 | 6 |
6-1
W-L
6-5
1.58 Ldr
ERA
3.33
0.93 Ldr
WHIP
1.04
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
65%
MARINERS
35%
▲ Edge: +17.60% (DET)
TIGERS
47%
Book Odds: +111
MARINERS
55%
Book Odds: -120
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.7%
SEA By 1-2 runs
14.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
5.3
DETROIT
Seattle
3.7
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Tigers
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
A
Sim
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
DET @ SEA
11 - 0
Aug 5, 2026
DET @ SEA
2 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
DET @ SEA
8 - 0
Jun 7, 2026
SEA @ DET
4 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
SEA @ DET
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.720
▲
OPS
.693
181
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+43.9% more
Detroit: 1.8
vs
Seattle: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+34.6% more
Detroit: 21.3
vs
Seattle: 13.9
Hits (L5)
+28.8% more
Detroit: 12.8
vs
Seattle: 9.1
Walks (L5)
+10.9% more
Detroit: 5.4
vs
Seattle: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
5.3
8
SEA Score
3.7
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 12.8
4.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.8
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.2
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 21.3
4.0 / 24.0
Walks
4.8 / 5.4
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+111 / -120
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
DET
SEA
DET
ML
50%
81-81
54%
86-73
52%
85-77
54%
87-73
ATS
60%
98-64
64%
101-58
59%
95-67
57%
91-69
TTL
56%
85-67-10
46%
69-81-9
53%
81-71-10
46%
69-81-10
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