PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
51-41 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
41-49 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.47 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Sam Moll | None-None | 3.82 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.47 Ldr
ERA
3.82
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
55%
REDS
45%
PHILLIES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.0%
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.3
PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati
4.8
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.5
B
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
PHI @ CIN
1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026
PHI @ CIN
5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026
PHI @ CIN
4 - 1
May 20, 2026
CIN @ PHI
9 - 4
May 19, 2026
CIN @ PHI
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.724
▲
OPS
.699
3
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.6% more
Philadelphia: 11.9
vs
Cincinnati: 7.7
Hits (L5)
+15.5% more
Philadelphia: 8.7
vs
Cincinnati: 7.3
Total Bases (L5)
+14.5% more
Philadelphia: 13.4
vs
Cincinnati: 11.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.3
4
CIN Score
4.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 8.7
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 11.9
18.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 13.4
8.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.8 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PHI
CIN
PHI
ML
55%
88-71
59%
97-67
49%
79-81
49%
80-84
ATS
54%
86-73
65%
107-57
50%
80-80
51%
83-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
57%
88-67-9
54%
83-72-5
51%
78-76-9
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