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SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

76-86  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Jun 25 • 12:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

82-80  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Eduard Bazardo
STARTING PITCHER

Eduard Bazardo

#83 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gregory Soto
STARTING PITCHER

Gregory Soto

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eduard Bazardo None-None 1.98 -- 1.0 1
Gregory Soto None-None 3.24 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.98 Ldr ERA 3.24
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
51%
📊
PIRATES
49%
MARINERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 72%
Under 0 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

49.0%

Pirates Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

13.9%

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.5
SEATTLE
5.4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.9
A
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 SEA @ PIT 1 - 5
Jun 24, 2026 SEA @ PIT 1 - 11
Jun 23, 2026 SEA @ PIT 3 - 2
Jul 6, 2025 PIT @ SEA 0 - 1
Jul 5, 2025 PIT @ SEA 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.693
OPS
▲ .734
182
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +64.7% more
Seattle: 1.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.5
Walks (L5) +25.9% more
Seattle: 2.7 vs Pittsburgh: 2.0
Home Runs (L5) +12.0% more
Seattle: 0.8 vs Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +87.4% more
Pittsburgh: 17.8 vs Seattle: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 5.5 1
PIT Score 5.4 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.5 / 6.2 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.4 / 9.6 7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 17.8 / 9.5 15.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.7 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
SEA
PIT
SEA
ML
52% 82-77
50% 81-81
52% 85-78
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 98-64
50% 81-82
59% 95-67
TTL
47% 72-81-6
56% 85-67-10
50% 79-78-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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