Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Padres ATL @ SD

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

48-30  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Jun 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

41-37  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Raisel Iglesias None-None 1.42 -- 1.0 1
Mason Miller None-None 0.79 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
1.42 ERA Ldr 0.79
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
55%
📊
PADRES
45%
BRAVES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 62%
Under 0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

45.0%

Padres Cover

55.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.1%

ATL By 3-4 runs

15.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
ATLANTA
4.6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
63% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
B
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 SD @ ATL 5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026 SD @ ATL 6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026 SD @ ATL 8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026 SD @ ATL 2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 ATL @ SD 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
San Diego SD
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.757
OPS
▲ .925
1
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +39.2% more
Atlanta: 4.2 vs San Diego: 2.6
Runs per Game (Season) +20.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Atlanta: 5.0
OPS (Season) +16.8%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Atlanta: 75.7%
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
San Diego: 0.6 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 5.1 6
SD Score 4.6 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.1 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 8.5 14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 10.4 14.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.6 / 4.2 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ATL
SD
ATL
ML
51% 85-83
46% 77-90
51% 85-82
54% 90-78
ATS
54% 91-77
57% 96-71
55% 92-75
52% 87-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 83-73-11
54% 86-74-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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