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SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

SE MISSOURISEMO

1-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

1-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Justin Keller
KEY GAME

Justin Keller

#17 | Place kicker
@
Ethan Gurney
KEY GAME

Ethan Gurney

#95 | Punter
Player
Justin Keller None-None
Ethan Gurney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SE MISSOURI
13%
📊
IOWA STATE
87%
SE MISSOURI 15% Book Odds: +550
IOWA STATE 89% Book Odds: -800
Book Implied: 15.40% / 88.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 52.5 47%
Under 52.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+20.2
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
+29.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.3 points (Southeast Missouri State)
SE MissouriSEMO (+29.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (-29.5)
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (+29.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SE Missouri Cover

92.5%

Iowa State Cover

7.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEMO +20.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)

SEMO By 1-6 points

4.1%

SEMO By 7-13 points

2.0%

ISU By 1-6 points

8.4%

ISU By 7-13 points

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
15.4
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 11.50
35.6
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 41
Simulated Score
15
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 11.50
36
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 41
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa State Win
87% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa State Win
98% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI SE Missouri (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: +20.2
B
Sim SE Missouri (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: +21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 SEMO @ ISU 10 - 38
Sep 3, 2022 SEMO @ ISU 10 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +137.5% more
Iowa State: 200.9 vs Southeast Missouri State: 84.6
Turnovers (L5) +24.0% more
Iowa State: 1.1 vs Southeast Missouri State: 0.9
First Downs (L5) +23.5% more
Iowa State: 20.1 vs Southeast Missouri State: 16.3
Total Yards (L5) +19.9% more
Iowa State: 380.2 vs Southeast Missouri State: 317.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score 15.4 10
ISU Score 35.6 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 16.3 15.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 200.9 / 84.6 108.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 380.2 / 317.1 303.0 / 209.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +3500 / -20000 → +550 / -800 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +29.5 / -29.5 → +29.5 / -29.5
90%TICKETS10%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 52.5 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
--
ISU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
--
ISU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
--
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
SEMO
ISU
SEMO
ML
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
75% 3-1-1
50% 1-1
50% 2-2-1
50% 1-1
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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