Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Stanford MIA @ STAN

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

1-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

1-1  |  Home

6
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
82%
📊
STANFORD
18%
▲ Edge: +10.70% (STAN)
MIAMI 96% Book Odds: -2588
STANFORD 7% Book Odds: +1351
Book Implied: 96.30% / 6.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.4
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 47.0 50%
Under 47.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+16.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
+24.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Stanford)
MiamiMIA (-24.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+24.5)
Stanford Cardinal (+24.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

12.7%

Stanford Cover

87.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around STAN +16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

MIA By 1-6 points

11.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

18.0%

STAN By 1-6 points

6.5%

STAN By 7-13 points

3.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 35.80
15.2
STANFORD
Book Implied: 11.20
Simulated Score
36
MIAMI
Book Implied: 35.80
12
STANFORD
Book Implied: 11.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Miami Win
82% Win Prob
C
Sim Miami Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stanford (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +16.0
B
Sim Stanford (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u47.0 Loss
Proj Total: 46.4
D
Sim o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 MIA @ STAN 45 - 6
Oct 25, 2025 STAN @ MIA 7 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.0% more
Miami: 151.3 vs Stanford: 84.7
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Miami: 383.3 vs Stanford: 300.6
First Downs (L5) +15.5% more
Miami: 20.4 vs Stanford: 17.3
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Stanford: 1.2 vs Miami: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 31.2 45
STAN Score 15.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 20.4 17.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 84.7 / 151.3 78.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.73
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 300.6 / 383.3 299.0 / 549.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -2771 / +1176 → -2588 / +1351 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -24.5 / +24.5 → -24.5 / +24.5
65%TICKETS35%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 47 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
7-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.7 ATS +/-: +5.1
STAN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -15.6 ATS +/-: -7.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 33.7 ATS +/-: +5.1
STAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -15.6 ATS +/-: -7.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +10.4
STAN
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
MIA
STAN
MIA
ML
75% 6-2
100% 7-0
75% 6-2
100% 7-0
ATS
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
43% 3-4
TTL
25% 2-6
71% 5-2
75% 6-2
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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