Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Stanford MIA @ STAN

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

1-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

1-1  |  Home

6
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
82%
📊
STANFORD
18%
▲ Edge: +10.70% (STAN)
MIAMI 96% Book Odds: -2588
STANFORD 7% Book Odds: +1351
Book Implied: 96.30% / 6.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.4
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 47.0 50%
Under 47.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+16.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
+24.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Stanford)
MiamiMIA (-24.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (+24.5)
Stanford Cardinal (+24.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

12.7%

Stanford Cover

87.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around STAN +16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

MIA By 1-6 points

11.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

18.0%

STAN By 1-6 points

6.5%

STAN By 7-13 points

3.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 35.80
15.2
STANFORD
Book Implied: 11.20
Simulated Score
36
MIAMI
Book Implied: 35.80
12
STANFORD
Book Implied: 11.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Miami Win
82% Win Prob
C
Sim Miami Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stanford (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +16.0
B
Sim Stanford (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u47.0 Loss
Proj Total: 46.4
D
Sim o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 MIA @ STAN 45 - 6
Oct 25, 2025 STAN @ MIA 7 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.0% more
Miami: 151.3 vs Stanford: 84.7
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Miami: 383.3 vs Stanford: 300.6
First Downs (L5) +15.5% more
Miami: 20.4 vs Stanford: 17.3
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Stanford: 1.2 vs Miami: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 31.2 45
STAN Score 15.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 20.4 17.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 84.7 / 151.3 78.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.73
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 300.6 / 383.3 299.0 / 549.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -2771 / +1176 → -2588 / +1351 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -24.5 / +24.5 → -24.5 / +24.5
65%TICKETS35%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 47 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
MIA
STAN
MIA
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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