Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hawai'i @ Stanford HAW @ STAN

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

1-4  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Stanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

2-3  |  Home

37
Key Game
Gehrig Heil
KEY GAME

Gehrig Heil

#47 | Punter
@
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
Player
Gehrig Heil None-None
Aidan Flintoft None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWAI'I
35%
📊
STANFORD
65%
HAWAI'I 37% Book Odds: +173
STANFORD 67% Book Odds: -199
Book Implied: 36.60% / 66.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.1
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 (Over)
Over 48.5 62%
Under 48.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.1
STANFORD
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Stanford)
Hawai'iHAW (+4.5) 0 StanfordSTAN (-4.5)
Stanford Cardinal (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawai'i Cover

30.6%

Stanford Cover

69.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around STAN -7.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

HAW By 1-6 points

12.8%

HAW By 7-13 points

9.5%

STAN By 1-6 points

16.4%

STAN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 22
30.6
STANFORD
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
22
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 22
27
STANFORD
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Stanford Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Stanford Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stanford (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.1
C
Sim Stanford (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.1
B
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 HAW @ STAN 27 - 37
Aug 23, 2025 STAN @ HAW 20 - 23
Sep 1, 2023 STAN @ HAW 37 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.6% more
Stanford: 1.3 vs Hawai'i: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +23.4% more
Hawai'i: 385.2 vs Stanford: 294.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.9% more
Hawai'i: 109.1 vs Stanford: 84.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 23.5 27
STAN Score 30.6 37
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +174 / -210 → +173 / -199 ↓
8%TICKETS92%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5 / -5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 48.5 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
STAN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
STAN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
HAW
STAN
HAW
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Linebackers Shine in Win Over Washington, Three Earn Game Ba…
sgvtribune 21 hours, 5 minutes ago
Stanford's Davis Warren Set to Challenge Notre Dame's Elite Defe…
yahoo 1 day, 14 hours ago
Pat McAfee Pledges $1 Million to Iowa Children's Hospital After …
awfulannouncing 3 days, 2 hours ago
Iowa's Big Ten Championship Hopes Remain Alive Despite Ohio Stat…
yahoo 3 days, 21 hours ago
Lamar Cardinals Soar Past Northwestern State, 42-14, as Demons' …
abcnews 4 days, 20 hours ago