Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Mariners BOS @ SEA

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-75  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Jun 19 • 6:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

76-86  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryce Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Miller

#50 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 3.60 -- 1.0 1
Bryce Miller None-None 1.58 -- 5.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
3.60 ERA Ldr 1.58
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
35%
📊
MARINERS
65%
RED SOX --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

40.1%

Mariners Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
BOSTON
3
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mariners Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Mariners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 SEA @ BOS 8 - 3
Sep 1, 2026 SEA @ BOS 9 - 6
Aug 31, 2026 SEA @ BOS 8 - 9
Jun 21, 2026 BOS @ SEA 1 - 3
Jun 20, 2026 BOS @ SEA 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Seattle SEA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.10
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .233
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .379
.409
OPS
▲ .693
2
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9000.0% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +310.0% more
Seattle: 4.1 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +47.8% more
Seattle: 2.3 vs Boston: 1.6
Strikeouts (L5) +28.6% more
Seattle: 9.8 vs Boston: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 2.0 6
SEA Score 3.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.4 / 7.1 2.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 7.6 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.5 / 12.7 6.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.3 / 1.6 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
BOS
SEA
BOS
ML
50% 81-81
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 98-64
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
48% 79-84
TTL
56% 85-67-10
46% 72-83-5
53% 81-71-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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