TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
79-83 | Road
7
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
80-82 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 2.88 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.31 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.88 Ldr
ERA
3.31
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
61%
MARLINS
39%
BLUE JAYS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
TOR By 1-2 runs
14.9%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.1%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.22
TORONTO
Miami
5.75
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 27, 2026
MIA @ TOR
1 - 2
May 26, 2026
MIA @ TOR
1 - 8
May 25, 2026
MIA @ TOR
8 - 2
Aug 24, 2025
TOR @ MIA
3 - 5
Aug 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.692
OPS
▲
.727
152
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+10.5% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+3.5%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.9%
Miami: 40.0%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.2
7
MIA Score
5.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.3 / 7.6
10.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 9.7
4.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 13.0
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TOR
MIA
TOR
ML
48%
78-84
46%
74-87
55%
88-72
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
91-71
56%
90-71
54%
86-74
49%
79-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-73-5
45%
70-85-5
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