Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Lions BELL @ UNA

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

13-19  |  Road

68
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 4:27 PM ET
Flowers Hall
View Odds Details →

NORTH ALABAMA

LIONSUNA

9-21  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
65%
📊
LIONS
35%
KNIGHTS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (North Alabama)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 LionsUNA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

27.4%

Lions Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)

BELL By 1-7 points

16.9%

BELL By 8-14 points

6.8%

UNA By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNA By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
BELLARMINE
90
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
BELLARMINE
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 174.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 BELL @ UNA 68 - 73
Jan 10, 2026 UNA @ BELL 82 - 73
Jan 2, 2025 BELL @ UNA 66 - 82
Feb 24, 2024 UNA @ BELL 70 - 82
Jan 11, 2024 BELL @ UNA 53 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +34.5% more
North Alabama: 35.0 vs Bellarmine: 26.0
Turnovers (L5) +25.9% more
North Alabama: 11.7 vs Bellarmine: 9.3
Steals (L5) +8.2% more
North Alabama: 5.5 vs Bellarmine: 5.1
Assists (L5) +53.6% more
Bellarmine: 15.7 vs North Alabama: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 84.0 68
UNA Score 90.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.5 / 43.8 33.0 / 20.0
Assists 7.3 / 15.7 14.0 / 5.0
Blocks 1.6 / 1.8 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 56.4 47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 61.7 / 82.4 72.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 26.0 35.0 / 22.0
Steals 5.5 / 5.1 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 9.3 13.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
UNA
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
UNA
10-17-1 (37.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
BELL
UNA
BELL
ML
43% 13-17
72% 23-9
57% 16-12
94% 29-2
ATS
60% 18-12
72% 23-9
57% 16-12
94% 29-2
TTL
63% 19-11
50% 16-16
100% 28-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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