Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Gophers @ Ducks MINN @ ORE

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

15-18  |  Road

61
FINAL
Tue, Feb 17 • 5:45 PM ET
Matthew Knight Arena
View Odds Details →

OREGON

DUCKSORE

12-20  |  Home

44
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GOPHERS
55%
📊
DUCKS
45%
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
DUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 90%
Under 0 10%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Oregon)
Golden GophersMINN (-3.5) 0 DucksORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Gophers Cover

0.1%

Ducks Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

MINN By 1-7 points

0.1%

MINN By 8-14 points

0.0%

ORE By 1-7 points

0.8%

ORE By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
54
MINNESOTA
85
OREGON
Simulated Score
MINNESOTA
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ducks Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ducks (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 MINN @ ORE 61 - 44
Jan 25, 2025 ORE @ MINN 69 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +86.7% more
Oregon: 3.4 vs Minnesota: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +15.8% more
Oregon: 29.5 vs Minnesota: 25.4
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Oregon: 75.4% vs Minnesota: 66.4%
Assists (L5) +8.4% more
Oregon: 14.8 vs Minnesota: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 54.0 61
ORE Score 85.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 34.1 10.0 / 31.0
Assists 14.8 / 13.6 14.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.4 / 1.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 44.8 38.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 66.4 100.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 29.5 / 25.4 28.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.4 / 6.6 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 10.5 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN Advantage
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
MINN
ORE
MINN
ML
56% 18-14
48% 16-17
62% 18-11
71% 22-9
ATS
56% 18-14
55% 18-15
62% 18-11
71% 22-9
TTL
59% 19-13
52% 17-16
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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