SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
27-6 | Road
72
PACIFIC
TIGERSPAC
18-15 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
45%
TIGERS
55%
GAELS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
191.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
SMC By 1-7 points
15.3%
SMC By 8-14 points
25.3%
PAC By 1-7 points
4.8%
PAC By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Mary's
103
SAINT MARY'S
Pacific
88
PACIFIC
Simulated Score
Saint Mary's
SAINT MARY'S
Pacific
PACIFIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gaels
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Gaels (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o135.5
Loss
Proj Total: 191.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
SMC @ PAC
72 - 61
Dec 28, 2024
PAC @ SMC
60 - 70
Feb 6, 2024
SMC @ PAC
84 - 43
Jan 25, 2024
PAC @ SMC
28 - 76
Feb 23, 2023
PAC @ SMC
52 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+66.4% more
Saint Mary's: 4.4
vs
Pacific: 1.5
Assists (L5)
+16.4% more
Saint Mary's: 20.2
vs
Pacific: 16.9
Rebounding (L5)
+14.5% more
Saint Mary's: 44.6
vs
Pacific: 38.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.3%
Saint Mary's: 45.5%
vs
Pacific: 38.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMC Score
103.0
72
PAC Score
88.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 45.5
50.0 / 30.0
Assists
16.9 / 20.2
17.0 / 18.0
Blocks
1.5 / 4.4
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 47.4
42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
73.2 / 73.4
82.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
38.2 / 44.6
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.1
1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 10.8
15.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
PAC
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
PAC
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PAC
SMC
PAC
SMC
ML
45%
15-18
56%
18-14
80%
24-6
82%
23-5
ATS
55%
18-15
62%
20-12
80%
24-6
83%
24-5
TTL
58%
19-14
53%
17-15
100%
30-0
100%
29-0
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