AUBURN
TIGERSAUB
22-16 | Road
75
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
28-9 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
45%
RAZORBACKS
55%
TIGERS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Auburn)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AUB -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)
AUB By 1-7 points
13.7%
AUB By 8-14 points
24.3%
ARK By 1-7 points
4.0%
ARK By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Auburn
90
AUBURN
Arkansas
74
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Auburn
AUBURN
Arkansas
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
AUB @ ARK
75 - 88
Jan 10, 2026
ARK @ AUB
73 - 95
Feb 19, 2025
ARK @ AUB
60 - 67
Jan 6, 2024
AUB @ ARK
83 - 51
Mar 9, 2023
ARK @ AUB
76 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+11.0% more
Auburn: 6.4
vs
Arkansas: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.3%
Auburn: 76.8%
vs
Arkansas: 70.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Auburn: 34.4%
vs
Arkansas: 28.4%
Blocks (L5)
+127.6% more
Arkansas: 7.0
vs
Auburn: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AUB Score
90.0
75
ARK Score
74.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 34.4
38.0 / 32.0
Assists
15.1 / 10.5
19.0 / 10.0
Blocks
7.0 / 3.1
10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
53.5 / 43.2
57.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 76.8
67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
34.2 / 33.7
31.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.7 / 6.4
6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
7.9 / 7.5
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
22-16-0
(57.9%)
Margin: 4.2
ATS +/-: -1.5
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
15-23-0
(39.5%)
Margin: 4.2
ATS +/-: -1.5
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +4.2
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
AUB
ARK
AUB
ML
68%
25-12
58%
22-16
81%
25-6
75%
24-8
ATS
70%
26-11
74%
28-10
81%
25-6
75%
24-8
TTL
57%
21-16
53%
20-18
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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