HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
30-7 | Road
79
TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
23-12 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
55%
HORNED FROGS
45%
COUGARS
--
HORNED FROGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
9.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
20.1%
TCU By 1-7 points
2.2%
TCU By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
87
HOUSTON
TCU
68
TCU
Simulated Score
Houston
HOUSTON
TCU
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cougars
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cougars (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
HOU @ TCU
79 - 70
Jan 6, 2025
TCU @ HOU
46 - 65
Mar 14, 2024
TCU @ HOU
45 - 60
Jan 13, 2024
HOU @ TCU
67 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.2%
Houston: 80.2%
vs
TCU: 69.0%
Steals (L5)
+9.8% more
Houston: 7.9
vs
TCU: 7.1
Turnovers (L5)
+56.2% more
TCU: 11.2
vs
Houston: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+19.4% more
TCU: 4.2
vs
Houston: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
87.0
79
TCU Score
68.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 37.3
27.0 / 39.0
Assists
15.2 / 14.3
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 47.1
47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 80.2
64.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 33.6
30.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.1 / 7.9
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 7.2
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
TCU
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
HOU
TCU
HOU
ML
74%
26-9
70%
26-11
63%
19-11
68%
23-11
ATS
74%
26-9
70%
26-11
63%
19-11
68%
23-11
TTL
66%
23-12
59%
22-15
100%
30-0
100%
34-0
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