MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
1-1 | Road
140
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
1-1 | Home
139
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
44%
NUGGETS
56%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
240.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
26.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
25.2%
DEN By 1-7 points
15.5%
DEN By 8-14 points
5.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
123.89
MINNESOTA
Denver
117
DENVER
Simulated Score
Minnesota
MINNESOTA
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 240.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Minnesota: 77.1%
vs
Denver: 71.4%
Blocks (L5)
+39.3% more
Denver: 7.8
vs
Minnesota: 5.6
Assists (L5)
+22.2% more
Denver: 34.0
vs
Minnesota: 27.8
Turnovers (L5)
+13.4% more
Denver: 14.5
vs
Minnesota: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
123.9
140
DEN Score
117.0
139
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 39.3
35.3 / 38.0
Assists
34.0 / 27.8
33.0 / 35.0
Blocks
7.8 / 5.6
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
53.0 / 49.4
54.7 / 46.8
Free Throw %
71.4 / 77.1
75.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
45.2 / 48.0
45.0 / 52.0
Steals
8.4 / 7.6
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 12.8
18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIN
DEN
MIN
ML
54%
57-48
54%
63-53
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
67-49
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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