Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UMass @ Ohio MASS @ OHIO

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

4-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 2:15 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

3-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
@
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
Player
Derek Morris None-None
Magnus Haines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
20%
📊
OHIO
80%
UMASS --
OHIO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Ohio)
UMassMASS (-3.5) 0 OhioOHIO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UMass Cover

0.6%

Ohio Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

MASS By 1-6 points

0.4%

MASS By 7-13 points

0.1%

OHIO By 1-6 points

1.4%

OHIO By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MASSACHUSETTS
38
OHIO
Simulated Score
MASSACHUSETTS
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio Win
80% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ohio (-34.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 MASS @ OHIO 14 - 42
Sep 29, 2018 MASS @ OHIO 42 - 58
Sep 30, 2017 OHIO @ MASS 58 - 50
Nov 29, 2013 MASS @ OHIO 23 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +132.4% more
Ohio: 201.1 vs Massachusetts: 86.6
Total Yards (L5) +52.6% more
Ohio: 377.4 vs Massachusetts: 247.2
First Downs (L5) +24.5% more
Ohio: 19.9 vs Massachusetts: 16.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Ohio: 0.4 vs Massachusetts: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 3.0 14
OHIO Score 38.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 16.0 17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 201.1 / 86.6 363.0 / 125.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 377.4 / 247.2 391.0 / 215.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
OHIO
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
MASS
OHIO
MASS
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Buckeyes' Banged-Up Roster Opens Door for Breakout Stars Against…
si 0 minutes ago
Boston College Hockey Secures Commitment from USNTDP Forward Sam…
si 1 day ago
Ohio State vs. Iowa Draws Nearly 6 Million Viewers, Tops Week 5 …
yahoo 1 day, 23 hours ago
David Pollack's Bold Cam Coleman Comparison Draws Fiery Backlash…
headtopics 2 days, 18 hours ago
Jeremiah Smith Shatters Two Ohio State Records in Buckeyes' Road…
yahoo 3 days, 18 hours ago