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NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

3-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Nov 15 • 10:40 AM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

5-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Popo Aguirre
KEY GAME

Popo Aguirre

#0 | Linebacker
@
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
Player
Popo Aguirre None-None
Dylan Joyce None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC STATE
40%
📊
MIAMI
60%
NC STATE --
MIAMI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Miami)
NC StateNCSU (-3.5) 0 MiamiMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC State Cover

30.9%

Miami Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

NCSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

NCSU By 7-13 points

9.6%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.5%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
NC STATE
31
MIAMI
Simulated Score
NC STATE
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Miami Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Miami (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 15, 2025 NCSU @ MIA 7 - 41
Nov 4, 2023 MIA @ NCSU 6 - 20
Oct 23, 2021 NCSU @ MIA 30 - 31
Nov 6, 2020 MIA @ NCSU 44 - 41
Nov 19, 2016 MIA @ NCSU 27 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.1% more
NC State: 175.6 vs Miami: 143.7
Total Yards (L5) +14.5% more
NC State: 467.1 vs Miami: 399.5
Turnovers (L5) +9.2% more
NC State: 1.1 vs Miami: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 24.0 7
MIA Score 31.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 20.8 28.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 143.7 / 175.6 214.0 / 23.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 399.5 / 467.1 581.0 / 143.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NCSU
MIA
NCSU
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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