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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

40-19  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, May 31 • 1:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

29-28  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Reynaldo Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Reynaldo Lopez

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Reynaldo Lopez None-None 3.31 -- 1.0 2
Sam Moll None-None 2.49 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.31 ERA Ldr 2.49
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
67%
📊
REDS
33%
BRAVES --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ATLANTA
3
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CIN @ ATL 7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 CIN @ ATL 2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026 CIN @ ATL 4 - 0
May 31, 2026 ATL @ CIN 4 - 6
May 30, 2026 ATL @ CIN 5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.757 ▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +53.4% more
Atlanta: 2.2 vs Cincinnati: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +20.8% more
Atlanta: 16.9 vs Cincinnati: 13.4
Runs per Game (Season) +17.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Strikeouts (L5) +14.3% more
Atlanta: 7.8 vs Cincinnati: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.0 4
CIN Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.9 / 8.8 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 2.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 7.8 5.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 16.9 18.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.4 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATL
CIN
ATL
ML
55% 88-71
46% 77-90
49% 79-81
54% 90-78
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 96-71
50% 80-80
52% 87-81
TTL
53% 81-73-5
53% 83-73-11
54% 83-72-5
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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