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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

25-27  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 23 • 4:10 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

36-16  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
@
Dylan Dodd
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Dodd

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Irvin None-None 5.23 -- 5.0 7
Dylan Dodd None-None 1.13 -- 3.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.23 ERA Ldr 1.13
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
36%
📊
BRAVES
64%
NATIONALS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

40.1%

Braves Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
WASHINGTON
6
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
7
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Braves (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 ATL @ WSH 9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026 ATL @ WSH 5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026 WSH @ ATL 3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026 WSH @ ATL 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.744
OPS
▲ .757
210 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +17.6% more
Atlanta: 10.3 vs Washington: 8.8
OPS (Season) +1.3%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs Washington: 74.4%
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.0%
Atlanta: 43.3% vs Washington: 42.3%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.3%
Atlanta: 32.4% vs Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.0 2
ATL Score 6.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.3 / 8.8 1.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 9.3 15.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 15.3 1.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46% 77-90
57% 92-69
54% 90-78
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 96-71
58% 93-68
52% 87-81
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 83-73-11
50% 77-78-6
49% 76-80-11
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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