CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
24-24 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
25-23 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Moll | None-None | 3.15 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 1.53 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.15
ERA
Ldr 1.53
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
100%
PHILLIES
0%
REDS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
CIN By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
7.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
2
CINCINNATI
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
PHI @ CIN
1 - 0
Jul 8, 2026
PHI @ CIN
5 - 11
Jul 7, 2026
PHI @ CIN
4 - 1
May 20, 2026
CIN @ PHI
9 - 4
May 19, 2026
CIN @ PHI
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.699
OPS
▲
.724
213
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.1% more
Philadelphia: 1.7
vs
Cincinnati: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.7% more
Philadelphia: 8.9
vs
Cincinnati: 6.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
OPS (Season)
+2.5%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
2.0
4
PHI Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.2
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 6.6
8.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 13.8
7.0 / 10.0
Walks
1.9 / 5.4
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
CIN
PHI
CIN
ML
59%
97-67
55%
88-71
49%
80-84
49%
79-81
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
80-80
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
81-73-5
51%
78-76-9
54%
83-72-5
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