ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
32-16 | Road
8
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
22-26 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 4.19 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
4.19
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
MARLINS
0%
BRAVES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Miami
5
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Miami
MIA
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757
▲
OPS
.727
1
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16700.0% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+72.0% more
Miami: 1.0
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+68.6% more
Miami: 10.0
vs
Atlanta: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+55.6% more
Miami: 15.4
vs
Atlanta: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.0
8
MIA Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.0 / 5.9
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.8
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 9.9
13.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.7
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48%
78-84
46%
77-90
55%
88-72
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
96-71
54%
86-74
52%
87-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
83-73-11
53%
82-73-5
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS