BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
19-26 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
31-15 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brayan Bello
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Reynaldo Lopez
#40 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | None-None | 7.16 | -- | 5.0 | 1 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | None-None | 3.56 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.16
ERA
Ldr 3.56
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
BRAVES
100%
RED SOX
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
18.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Atlanta
2
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 28, 2026
ATL @ BOS
10 - 2
May 27, 2026
ATL @ BOS
0 - 8
May 26, 2026
ATL @ BOS
7 - 6
May 17, 2026
BOS @ ATL
1 - 8
May 16, 2026
BOS @ ATL
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.409
OPS
▲
.757
2
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Boston: 0.8
vs
Atlanta: 0.6
Hits (L5)
+10.7% more
Boston: 7.1
vs
Atlanta: 6.4
Total Bases (L5)
+8.0% more
Boston: 12.3
vs
Atlanta: 11.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+400.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
1
ATL Score
2.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 7.1
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.1
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 12.3
16.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.0
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BOS
ATL
BOS
ML
46%
77-90
50%
80-80
54%
90-78
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-67
52%
87-81
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
83-73-11
46%
72-83-5
49%
76-80-11
47%
74-83-6
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