SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
27-18 | Road
8
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
22-25 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bradgley Rodriguez
#72 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
George Kirby
#68 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradgley Rodriguez | None-None | 1.59 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| George Kirby | None-None | 3.45 | -- | 5.2 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.59 Ldr
ERA
3.45
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
MARINERS
0%
PADRES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SD By 1-2 runs
13.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
7.8%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
SD @ SEA
8 - 3
May 16, 2026
SD @ SEA
7 - 4
May 15, 2026
SD @ SEA
2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026
SEA @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
SEA @ SD
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.925
▲
OPS
.693
4
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4450.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Hits (L5)
+17.1% more
Seattle: 8.3
vs
San Diego: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+8.1% more
Seattle: 13.0
vs
San Diego: 12.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.0
8
SEA Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.1
1.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.3
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.1
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 12.0
1.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.6
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SD
SEA
SD
ML
50%
81-81
51%
85-83
52%
85-77
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
98-64
54%
91-77
59%
95-67
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
82-80-6
53%
81-71-10
54%
86-74-6
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