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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

26-13  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, May 9 • 9:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

24-14  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Reynaldo Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Reynaldo Lopez

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Reynaldo Lopez None-None 3.71 -- 2.0 1
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 4.50 -- 1.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.71 Ldr ERA 4.50
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
📊
DODGERS
100%
BRAVES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Atlanta)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

69.1%

Dodgers Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

LAD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ATLANTA
2
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 LAD @ ATL 4 - 1
Oct 6, 2026 LAD @ ATL 3 - 1
Oct 4, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 2
Oct 3, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 5
Aug 27, 2026 LAD @ ATL 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Los Angeles LAD
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.757
OPS
▲ .762
1
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +32.7% more
Atlanta: 2.6 vs Los Angeles: 1.8
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
Atlanta: 0.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +1.2% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Slugging Pct (Season) +0.9%
Atlanta: 43.3% vs Los Angeles: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.0 7
LAD Score 2.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.9 6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 9.4 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.6 / 12.1 10.0 / 13.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
ATL
LAD
ATL
ML
56% 92-73
46% 77-90
48% 79-87
54% 90-78
ATS
59% 98-67
57% 96-71
43% 72-94
52% 87-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
53% 83-73-11
44% 70-90-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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