ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
26-11 | Road
1
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
17-20 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Ferrer
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | None-None | 2.38 | -- | 5.2 | 5 |
| Jose Ferrer | None-None | 1.89 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.38
ERA
Ldr 1.89
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
MARINERS
100%
BRAVES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Seattle
2
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
2
ATLANTA
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 6, 2026
ATL @ SEA
1 - 3
May 5, 2026
ATL @ SEA
3 - 2
May 4, 2026
ATL @ SEA
4 - 5
Sep 7, 2025
SEA @ ATL
18 - 2
Sep 6, 2025
SEA @ ATL
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Seattle
SEA
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.233
Avg (AVG)
.233
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.757
▲
OPS
.693
1
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+51.5% more
Atlanta: 4.9
vs
Seattle: 2.4
Total Bases (L5)
+41.9% more
Atlanta: 17.0
vs
Seattle: 9.9
Home Runs (L5)
+41.8% more
Atlanta: 2.1
vs
Seattle: 1.2
Hits (L5)
+37.1% more
Atlanta: 8.9
vs
Seattle: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.0
1
SEA Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.6 / 8.9
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 11.5
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
9.9 / 17.0
15.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.4 / 4.9
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
ATL
SEA
ATL
ML
50%
81-81
46%
77-90
52%
85-77
54%
90-78
ATS
60%
98-64
57%
96-71
59%
95-67
52%
87-81
TTL
56%
85-67-10
53%
83-73-11
53%
81-71-10
49%
76-80-11
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