KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
14-19 | Road
4
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
16-18 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Wilcox
#43 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Lynch IV | None-None | 1.98 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Cole Wilcox | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.98 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
0%
MARINERS
100%
ROYALS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
SEA @ KC
6 - 8
May 23, 2026
SEA @ KC
0 - 5
May 22, 2026
SEA @ KC
2 - 0
May 3, 2026
KC @ SEA
4 - 1
May 2, 2026
KC @ SEA
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.718
▲
OPS
.693
170
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+51.2% more
Kansas City: 3.7
vs
Seattle: 1.8
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
Kansas City: 9.0
vs
Seattle: 7.6
Total Bases (L5)
+8.9% more
Kansas City: 14.7
vs
Seattle: 13.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.8% more
Kansas City: 4.3
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
5.0
4
SEA Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.0
4.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 9.3
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 14.7
4.0 / 9.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.7
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
KC
SEA
KC
ML
50%
81-81
55%
89-72
52%
85-77
56%
90-70
ATS
60%
98-64
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
TTL
56%
85-67-10
58%
90-64-7
53%
81-71-10
54%
83-70-7
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