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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

13-19  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, May 2 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

16-17  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 3.77 -- 1.0 2
Andres Munoz None-None 6.23 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.77 Ldr ERA 6.23
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
0%
📊
MARINERS
100%
ROYALS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Mariners Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.3%

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
KANSAS CITY
4
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 SEA @ KC 6 - 8
May 23, 2026 SEA @ KC 0 - 5
May 22, 2026 SEA @ KC 2 - 0
May 3, 2026 KC @ SEA 4 - 1
May 2, 2026 KC @ SEA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.718 ▲
OPS
.693
170
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +40.4% more
Kansas City: 4.5 vs Seattle: 2.7
Strikeouts (L5) +20.2% more
Kansas City: 9.4 vs Seattle: 7.5
Hits (L5) +16.1% more
Kansas City: 9.4 vs Seattle: 7.9
Runs per Game (Season) +3.8% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 5.0 3
SEA Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 9.4 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 9.4 17.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 16.1 / 17.0 8.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
KC
SEA
KC
ML
50% 81-81
55% 89-72
52% 85-77
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 98-64
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
TTL
56% 85-67-10
58% 90-64-7
53% 81-71-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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