BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
12-17 | Road
0
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
12-16 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 4.2 | 4 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.56 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.38
ERA
Ldr 0.56
--
WHIP
--
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
BLUE JAYS
100%
RED SOX
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
19.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
10.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
6
BOSTON
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.409
OPS
▲
.692
2
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+46.6% more
Boston: 1.2
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+30.4% more
Boston: 15.1
vs
Toronto: 10.5
Hits (L5)
+30.3% more
Boston: 9.2
vs
Toronto: 6.4
Home Runs (Season)
+7500.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
6.0
0
TOR Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 9.2
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.9
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 15.1
7.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.6 / 1.6
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BOS
TOR
BOS
ML
46%
74-87
50%
80-80
50%
80-80
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
46%
72-83-5
45%
70-85-5
47%
74-83-6
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